Cal Poly

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	305.0
Current RPI:	305
Expected SOS:	208
Current SOS:	208
Current Record:	7-22
Expected Record:	7-22
Current Conf Record:	4-13
Expected Conf Record:	4-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-15
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-6
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	264
Expected OOC SOS:	190

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-22	305.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	78-62	L	0%
11-12	California (216.0)	P12	A	85-82	L	0%
11-18	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	59-63	W	100%
11-22	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	N	68-73	W	100%
11-24	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	N	56-53	L	0%
11-25	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	N	75-66	L	0%
12-2	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	91-81	W	100%
12-9	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	H	63-83	L	0%
12-12	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	A	67-53	L	0%
12-16	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	60-80	L	0%
12-19	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	84-64	L	0%
12-21	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	77-56	L	0%
1-4	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	80-79	W	100%
1-6	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	97-101	L	0%
1-10	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	57-45	L	0%
1-18	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	A	80-73	L	0%
1-20	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	A	72-54	L	0%
1-25	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	71-87	L	0%
1-27	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	A	80-56	L	0%
1-31	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	71-68	W	100%
2-3	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	H	78-64	W	100%
2-8	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	A	75-59	L	0%
2-10	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	A	73-54	L	0%
2-15	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	84-92	L	0%
2-17	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	58-75	L	0%
2-22	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	90-86	W	100%
3-1	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	72-63	L	0%
3-3	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	86-61	L	0%
3-8	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	N	75-53	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal Poly's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cal Poly's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cal Poly.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cal Poly	BW	26.41	26.41	21.95	21.95	-14.82	-14.82
UC Santa Barbara	BW	6.07	6.07	70.37	70.37	2.47	2.47
UC Irvine	BW	4.57	4.57	45.16	45.16	-0.44	-0.44
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.51	4.51	59.26	59.26	0.84	0.84
Long Beach St.	BW	4.47	4.47	37.93	37.93	-1.08	-1.08
UC Davis	BW	4.44	4.44	64.29	64.29	1.27	1.27
UC Riverside	BW	4.43	4.43	22.22	22.22	-2.46	-2.46
Hawaii	BW	4.40	4.40	53.85	53.85	0.34	0.34
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.37	4.37	11.54	11.54	-3.36	-3.36
Pepperdine	WCC	2.01	2.01	16.67	16.67	-1.34	-1.34
California	P12	1.98	1.98	23.33	23.33	-1.06	-1.06
Stanford	P12	1.86	1.86	53.12	53.12	0.12	0.12
Fresno St.	MWC	1.84	1.84	62.07	62.07	0.44	0.44
Santa Clara	WCC	1.84	1.84	35.71	35.71	-0.52	-0.52
Idaho	BSky	1.81	1.81	67.86	67.86	0.65	0.65
Princeton	Ivy	1.79	1.79	40.74	40.74	-0.33	-0.33
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.72	1.72	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	1.72	1.72	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
College of Charleston	CAA	1.72	1.72	80.00	80.00	1.03	1.03
SMU	Amer	1.72	1.72	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	1.72	1.72	59.38	59.38	0.32	0.32
San Francisco	WCC	0.34	0.34	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.34	0.34	67.65	67.65	0.12	0.12
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.32	0.32	16.67	16.67	-0.22	-0.22
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.32	0.32	33.33	33.33	-0.11	-0.11
Pacific	WCC	0.32	0.32	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Montana	BSky	0.32	0.32	77.42	77.42	0.17	0.17
Utah Valley	WAC	0.30	0.30	65.52	65.52	0.09	0.09
Nevada	MWC	0.29	0.29	79.41	79.41	0.17	0.17
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.28	0.28	84.85	84.85	0.20	0.20
Washington St.	P12	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Portland St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.20	0.20	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Southern Utah	BSky	0.20	0.20	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.19	0.19	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.19	0.19	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
UCLA	P12	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Portland	WCC	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Montana St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
BYU	WCC	0.17	0.17	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Oregon St.	P12	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Wichita St.	Amer	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
George Mason	A10	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Valparaiso	MVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Troy	SB	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01